Economy (52)

Sacked NNPCL CEO Mele Kyari and twelve other top management staff have come under probe over allegations of misappropriation of funds when he was in office.

 

 In a statement released by the media office of the national oil company, the economic and financial crime commission ( EFCC) has started an investigation into alleged abuse of office and misappropriation of funds by the former management staff.

Investigation is linked to funds earmarked for the rehabilitation of the infrastructure of the refineries and petrochemical companies 

Friday, 25 April 2025 19:21

NIGERIAN ECONOMY ON THE PATH OF RECOVERY

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The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have said that the Nigerian government has taken steps to address Nigeria's economic problems but the full impact of the reforms are yet to be felt by the majority of the population making poverty levels in the country very high one of the highest in the world. 

The financial houses are therefore of the view that something urgent must be done to avert further slide of the country's poverty index.  Presently, 15% of the world's extreme poor people live in NigeriaThere's urgent need to increase investment in the agricultural sector which is presently facing  structural challenges among other problems. 

Despite the bleak economic assessment the financial houses expect the Nigerian economy to grow by around 3.1 percent to 3.6 percent in the current year while it may reach 3.8percent in the year 2026.

The world bank noticed improved economic performance in the financial sector as well as the telecomunition sector and moderate recovery in other sectors too which is being projected to bring about expansion of the economy in years ahead.

The financial institutions expect inflation to ease gradually in the coming years. Structural inefficiencies ,weakness of the exchange rate are some of the reasons inflation remains stubborn.

The difference between Chinese and US tariffs continues to cast a shadow over the world economic landscape, even as the IMF and World Bank officials gather this week in Washington for their annual spring meeting.

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The world's largest economies and trade partners' disagreements will result in inflation and low productivity, job loss, and market contraction, as anticipated by observers if the trend continues 

 

The tariff war reached its crescendo earlier in the month following the decision by Mr Trump to slap a 134 per cent tax on Chinese imports as part of his “Liberation Day” that set a minimum 10 per cent levy on nearly all of America’s trading partners.

 

There was no respite when Beijing retaliated by hiking its levies on imports of the United States’ goods to 125 per cent, hitting back at Mr Trump’s decision to single out the world’s second biggest economy for higher duties.

The US president's position is that the import taxes will encourage US consumers to buy more American-made goods, increase the amount of tax raised, and lead to major investments in the country. Critics have, however, faulted these assumptions.

With a GDP of $259 billion based on purchasing power parity (PPP), Lagos State solidified its standing as one of Africa's economies. Lagos now has the second-largest economy on the continent, after Cairo, Egypt, thanks to this milestone. This was announced on Wednesday during the Lagos Economic Development Update (LEDU) 2025 official launch.

 

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the state in 2023 was US$259.75 billion, according to the study.

For investors hoping to take advantage of Nigeria's thriving economy, Lagos continues to be a top location. Opportunities exist in manufacturing, technology, real estate, and infrastructure development as a result of the state's sustained economic growth and deliberate policy initiatives.

Trinity Plaza 123

Nigeria's GDP will be rebased this year by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which will use 2019 as the new base year rather than 2010. After being used for the previous 15 years, 2010 is being replaced by 2019 as the base year for GDP calculations. The breadth of economic activity recorded has been extensively updated as part of the rebasing process, with an emphasis on emerging sectors such as pension fund administration and modular refineries, as well as digital economic activities. Additionally, social programs include initiatives by the Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) and the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS).

In a gloomy assessment of Nigeria's economy released, the World Bank predicted that a significant transformation of the country would take ten to fifteen years.

 

The disclosure highlights the significant obstacles that lay ahead and demands swift and decisive measures to guide the economy back toward resilience and recovery. Speaking at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG #30), Senior Vice President of the World Bank Group Indermit Gill stressed that the government must exert all of its efforts to shield the most vulnerable citizens from hardship because both their lives and the lives of Nigeria's 110 million children depend on it.

 

"To transform its economy, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least another 10 to 15 years," he stated. That being said, I'm not sure if you agree or disagree with me. If it does so, its economy will change and it will start to grow faster than other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, contributing to the transformation of the continent. While completing these tasks is extremely challenging, the benefits are enormous. This is the lesson learned during the past forty years, as well as from the experiences of nations like Norway, Korea, Poland, India, and others. So once more, I could say something controversial. However, Nigeria's 2003–2007 reforms were exactly what the country needed.

 

However, they did not last. Everyone is harmed by the current exchange rate, and monetary, and fiscal reforms, but poor Nigerians are particularly badly hit because of the country's exorbitant food and transportation costs. "The lives of Nigeria's 110 million children and its most vulnerable residents depend on the government doing everything within its power to shield them from misery. The long-term survival of Nigeria and the future of these 110 million children depend on it continuing with the reforms. Now that the year is almost over, there are three things that Nigerian policymakers need to accomplish.

 

The first is to prioritize non-oil growth. This requires a competitive exchange rate, which Nigeria now has. Nigeria’s real exchange rate is at its most competitive in at least 20 years,” he said. “This is a great opportunity for the private sector. To protect the poor and maintain competitiveness, the central bank must stay focused on inflation. It should resist the lure of short-term capital inflows that might push up the Naira’s value too quickly and curb non-oil growth

 

Rather, it should replenish its foreign exchange reserves to act as a buffer against fluctuations in oil prices. Once more, I believe that Governor Cardoso of the Central Bank of Nigeria is doing many of these things, and we should support him. He continued, saying that the government is implementing a large-scale targeted temporary cash distribution program that has already reached between 4 and 5 million people. "The second thing is to help every vulnerable household cope with high inflation," he stated. This should be swiftly expanded to 10 million families, and if needed, possibly even more.

 

The World Bank added that the government needs to use the money saved by eliminating fuel subsidies to safeguard its most vulnerable populations. According to Gill, the government ought to implement an economic safety net for the most susceptible residents in the coming years, funding it with the proceeds from the withdrawal of fuel subsidies and changes in exchange rates.

 

The economy must become more ready for business. Furthermore, I believe that the NESG Chairman has outlined a very clear agenda for what needs to be done in this area. Over 12 million young Nigerians, including men and women, will join the workforce in the next ten years. Their ability to find work will be largely dependent on the private sector and significant private investment, both domestically and internationally, in the non-oil economy. To attract investment of this kind, the national power system must be strengthened, transportation must be improved, security must be increased, and laws controlling private enterprise must be strengthened. Failing in these areas would destroy the future of yet another generation and impede reform initiatives throughout the continent.

 

The elites of Nigeria—all of us in this room are elites—must band together to back these reforms. They will be granting possibly the most significant wish for their children and grandchildren—a broadly prosperous and stable Nigeria. The World Bank team in Nigeria right now is among the greatest. Here we have a first-rate country director. Your team of economists, energy experts, and operations personnel is excellent. They possess the necessary knowledge. Above all, though, particularly during trying times, they possess the experience that the situation calls for. Numerous professionals in our Abuja office have experience with comparable adjustments that have taken place in Indonesia and numerous other locations.

 

You ought to utilize that to its fullest. But as I got ready for this visit, the most significant thing I discovered about our team is that they have a deep love and respect for regular Nigerians. That's the one thing that stood out to me about them. The people and government of Nigeria can always rely on their backing, and this team will receive all the help they require from the World Bank Group, he said.

The Nigerian economy under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has received plaudits from Nollywood actress Eniola Badmus.

 

She pointed out that the nation's exports are rising and imports are falling, suggesting a growing economy. The actress underlined that trade has advanced in Nigeria under Tinubu's leadership, emphasizing a change in focus from consumption to production.

 

"Our exports are increasing, and our imports are decreasing," she wrote. That indicates that the economy is growing. As of today, 2024, our exports have reached N38.59 trillion, while our imports totaled N24.44 trillion. We now have a record eight-month trade surplus of over N14 trillion as a result. It has never happened in Nigeria. Never. The change from consumption to production is welcome.

Her evaluation is conducted against the backdrop of the nation's tremendous hardship and inflation. Millions of people participated in a movement known as "End Hunger Protests" last month to express their opposition to the nation's deteriorating conditions.

Over the next six months, fluctuations in energy prices, exchange rates, and transportation expenses are expected to be the main drivers of inflation, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). In its "Inflation Expectations Survey for August," released on Thursday, the CBN provided the inflation outlook. The study is conducted in the wake of Nigeria's inflation rate dropping to 33.40 percent in July from 34.19 percent in June. According to CBN, the survey's foundation was built by the responses of businesses and households that were questioned about how they saw the inflation rate. 

Businesses and families anticipate that fluctuations in energy prices, exchange rates, and transportation expenses will be the main drivers of inflation during the next six months, according to the financial regulator. The respondents anticipate a modest decrease in the inflation rate over the next six months, according to the apex bank, "as their indices showed considerable improvement over the review periods."  In contrast to families, the study indicates that corporations are expecting a lower rate of inflation.

According to CBN, respondents anticipate higher spending over the next three and next month, with positive indices of 29.2 and 30.3 points, respectively. "Nevertheless, a negative index of -7.8 points indicates that they anticipate a significant decline in their spending over the next six months," according to CBN. "Businesses indicated a consistent decline in their expenditure appetite over the reviewed periods, while households expect to maintain their expenditure basket until October 2024 but significantly decrease it in February 2025." According to the CBN, 84.9 percent of respondents thought the rate of inflation in August was too high overall, "culminating in an index of -63.2 points."

According to CBN, energy prices, transportation costs, and exchange rates were the main determinants of how households and companies perceived inflation.

The Dangote oil refinery has received 30 million barrels of crude oil from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, with intentions to supply an additional 17 million barrels shortly. Adedapo Segun, the Executive Vice President of NNPCL Downstream, revealed this information on Thursday during a speech on Arise Television. Segun states that the business will deliver 11.3 million barrels in October in addition to 6.3 million barrels in September. "We will supply 11.3 million barrels in October, bringing our total supply to about 30 million barrels—6.3 million this month."

 

He continued by saying that this plays a role in the federal government's choice to sell crude to nearby refineries. The 6.3 million barrels will be delivered in seven cargoes, according to Segun. He voiced worry that the pump price as it is does not accurately represent the state of the market.

 

The current pump price does not accurately represent the market. It is unusual because NNPCL is the only importer of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in the nation. He emphasized that market forces, not any one organization, should control fuel prices. "We should be moving towards a situation where the free market determines prices," he added. He made it clear that NNPC's position as the only importer of gasoline was a result of the state of the market, not a conscious choice. "Allow me to place it in the right context. Not that NNPC is a regulator. We did not decide to act as the exclusive importer. Who enters the market is not decided by us. When others stopped participating, we took over. It has nothing to do with our desire to have monopolies.

 

He went on to say that perfect market circumstances, such as a more liquid foreign exchange market, would be necessary to achieve a stable fuel supply and pricing. "Optimal market conditions and foreign exchange liquidity are imperatives," he continued, implying that more extensive economic changes might be required to tackle the problem of fuel prices. Working closely with commercial refineries like Dangote, NNPC has made sure that there is a consistent supply of crude oil available for processing.

Thursday, 01 August 2024 14:08

DANGOTE TO EASE PUMP PRICE IN AUGUST

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The CORAN representative contended that unless the government addressed the exorbitant cost of fuel, particularly by collaborating with the regional refiners, it would be impossible to combat the rising inflation rate. If the price of petroleum products is not addressed at the pump, inflation cannot be controlled. You cannot claim to have a plan to reduce inflation while excluding important industries like refineries; you must include us and let's collaborate.

 

 

Furthermore, CORAN claims that we can entirely cease importing petroleum goods in 18 months if the Nigerian government cooperates with our plans and initiatives. Refineries exist in varying states of completion. We can create what Nigeria will need in eighteen months, he said.

Idoko stated that there is enough crude oil in Nigeria to support Dangote and other refineries, but the main issue facing the upstream oil industry has been crude theft. The crude oil we have is sufficient to run these refineries, and fresh fields are getting licenses every day. Thus, crude will be available to supply the refineries. The everyday theft of crude is the reason for our declining production rate.

 

 

Crude theft will decrease if there are refineries nearby. Since most refineries are situated close to some of these fields, people steal crude through the pipelines. Because of this, producers of crude oil won't have to worry about pumping their product through pipelines to the export terminal. "The local refineries will simply transport their products to these locations by truck, short pipeline, or barge from their fields. Because dishonest people are stealing petroleum from the lengthy pipes, we are losing a lot of money, Idoko said.

 

 

According to the CORAN official, local refineries are expected to purchase crude oil from foreign oil corporations at a price that is less than the international price. He requested that the Federal Government make sure that the price of crude oil is expressed in naira rather than dollars, citing the possibility of lower fuel production costs and less pressure on the local currency. He asked the IOCs to start selling fuel directly to local refiners rather than sending them to their trading representatives in Europe, mentioning that stopping fuel imports would boost the naira against the dollar.

 

 

The NMDPRA boss had earlier warned that Nigeria could not rely heavily on the Dangote refinery for its fuel supply. According to him, the refinery had requested the regulator to stop giving import licenses to other marketers to be the only fuel supplier in Nigeria.

 

 

"We cannot rely solely on one refinery to feed the country. Dangote is asking that all petroleum product imports, particularly AGO, be suspended or stopped and that all marketers be directed to the refinery. This is not good for the country's energy security.  And because of monopolies, that is bad for the market," Ahmed emphasized. Aliko Dangote, the president of the Dangote Group, refuted the accusation, questioning how he could have a monopoly when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is spending $4 billion to renovate government-owned facilities. The Federal Government of Nigeria has been urged by many citizens to assist regional refineries and halt fuel imports.

They said they hoped this would drive down the price of gasoline and diesel at the pump. Dangote, who has been bemoaning the purported inability of foreign oil corporations to provide crude to his refineries, declared lately that he will start supplying gasoline between August 10 and August 12. However, if the current crude crisis continues, a Dangote Group official stated in confidence that the refinery may export its gasoline.

In a statement signed by their National Coordinator, Mrs. Bisi Bakare, the group—which operates under the auspices of the Pragmatic Shareholders Association of Nigeria—expressed shock at the regulator's accusations about the caliber of Dangote's fuel production. Bakare praised Dangote for making the audacious decision to build one of the biggest refineries in the world. She emphasized Dangote's resolve and patriotism by highlighting his significant investments, such as the refinery, and his dedication to the country's progress.

The majority of Dangote's business investments are made in the local area, she continued, and he has made sure to pay taxes, create a large number of jobs, and provide shareholders with steady profits.  The organization denounced what it called regulatory agencies' "unwarranted attempts to demarket the refinery." It issued a warning, stating that such measures might discourage foreign and local investment and jeopardize government efforts to guarantee fuel availability and maintain price stability. "We need to unite behind the Dangote refinery to offer vital support, like the distribution of crude oil, participation from foreign oil companies, and coordination with regulatory agencies," she stated.

According to Bakare, Nigeria may save approximately 30% of its foreign exchange expenditures on offshore refining if the refinery is built, which would greatly help the nation's foreign exchange problems. "As shareholders, we are unwavering in our commitment to supporting Alhaji Aliko Dangote's vision to strengthen the country's economy and expand opportunities for our citizens," the shareholder stated. IOCs criticized The Dangote Group Management maintained last week that the IOCs were still impeding the refinery's ability to provide crude oil to its 650,000-capacity facility. In a statement, the group alleged that the IOCs insisted on selling crude oil to its refinery through their foreign agents, saying the local price of crude will continue to increase because the trading arms offer cargoes at $2 to $4 per barrel, above NUPRC.

Nigeria's overall public debt stock reached ₦121.67 trillion (91.46 billion USD) in March, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).

 

Patience Oniha, the DMO's director general, announced this in a statement on Friday in Abuja. According to Oniha, the Federal Government, the 36 state governments, and the Federal Capital Territory's (FCT) total debt, both domestic and foreign, made up the debt stock.

 

She stated that as of March, the total amount of debt was ₦65.65 trillion (46.29 dollars) for domestic debt and ₦56.02 trillion (42.12 billion dollars) for overseas debt. Comparatively speaking, she stated that as of December 2023, the total debt stock was ₦97.34 trillion, or 108.23 billion dollars. According to her, the expansion in the domestic debt component needed to close the 2024 budget deficit and the volatility of the foreign exchange market in the first quarter were the main reasons for the increase in the total debt stock.

 

 

Only the domestic debt component of the overall debt stock increased from ₦59.12 trillion on December 31, 2023, to ₦65.75 trillion on March 31, 2024, excluding changes in the value of the Naira during the first quarter of 2024. "The increase came from securitization of a portion of the ₦7.3 trillion Ways and Means advances at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and new borrowing to partially finance the 2024 budget deficit," the spokesperson stated. She stated that while borrowing will continue as planned in the 2024 budget, increases in government revenue would go a long way toward guaranteeing debt sustainability.

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